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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Significant resources is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

After-Dark Attacks

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.

Existing Situation

Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are driving the talks.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.